OpenAI revenue gap costs Nvidia 169 billion dollars

According to the report, the difference arises mainly from different counting methods, not from lost revenues. Investors had previously measured OpenAI against the growth rate of Anthropic, which includes revenues from its cloud partners – OpenAI only reports its own net revenue according to its own method.

The higher figure of around 70 billion dollars originally came from a report published at the end of September based on an anonymous source.

This had only a week earlier led to gains in AI-related stocks.

OpenAI did not comment on the current figures upon request. According to a person familiar with the documents, an internal presentation described by 24/7 Wall Street is said to show a total run rate growth of 77 percent in the third quarter – this individual figure is not independently verified.

Overall, revenue has grown by more than 70 percent since July. The correction thus retroactively explains why some investors had previously calculated with higher rates than the company has ever confirmed.

In addition to Nvidia (down 2.9 percent), the stocks of those companies whose business is closely linked to OpenAI fell particularly sharply:

• CoreWeave: down 7.8 percent
• Oracle: down 5.5 percent
• Broadcom: down 4.3 percent
• AMD: down 3.9 percent

A chip industry index fell by 3.4 percent, while the broad S&P 500 only dropped by 0.5 percent.

Oracle is particularly dependent on OpenAI. The cloud contract worth 300 billion dollars, which was closed in September 2025, accounts for about 45 percent of the total order backlog of 664 billion dollars, according to company statements.

This risk had already prompted the rating agency S&P to downgrade Oracle's credit rating in July.

In the most recent quarter, Oracle spent 28.5 billion dollars on investments, with a negative free cash flow of 5.4 billion dollars. According to another report published on the same day, the company is also seeking additional financing for AI chips.

Oracle itself stated that the demand for AI cloud capacity continues to grow faster than supply.

CoreWeave's business model relies on a debt-financed order backlog of 104 billion dollars, with interest costs amounting to 640 million dollars in the second quarter alone. Broadcom is already supplying OpenAI's first custom processor with the Jalapeño chip.

By 2028, the company expects installations of more than five gigawatts at OpenAI, as was recently made clear in AI Stock Week: Broadcom Falls 5.5 Percent, AMD Gains 3.7 Percent.

Reactions among market observers are mixed. Matt Maley from asset manager Miller Tabak said investors are becoming increasingly skeptical about how long the current pace of AI investments can be sustained.

Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi from UBS, on the other hand, maintains her growth forecast and sees strong arguments for Nvidia.

Nvidia itself reports a revenue outlook of 108 billion dollars for the current quarter, with a fluctuation range of two percent up or down. According to company statements, its own demand is even above the growth path of around 70 percent that the supply chain can cover for the fiscal year 2028.

OpenAI has meanwhile postponed its originally planned IPO for 2026 to early 2027.

The incident is part of the ongoing OpenAI dossier, which compiles the company's financial figures and competitions over the year. It will be crucial whether Oracle discloses for the first time at the next quarterly presentation what share of the 664 billion dollars in open orders actually pertains to OpenAI.

So far, the company has refused this breakdown. Nvidia's own quarterly report with the revenue forecast of 108 billion dollars is also expected to provide further insights in the coming weeks.

It remains to be seen whether investors' concerns will be confirmed or whether the sell-off on October 8 was primarily a dispute over accounting methods.